An Average Guess At The Off-Season's Top Targets
Heyman, a GM and an Agent all gave their input on the future contracts of some of the off-seasons biggest names. Thanks to Matt Cerrone at Metsblog for the information.
You can head over there to see the original list. I have compiled below a chart that takes those 3 and gives an average.
|Ellsbury||7 years, $146M||6 years, $100M||7 years, $147M||7/137M||19.5M|
|Choo||6 years, $110M||6 years, $110M||6 years, $120M||6/113M||18.8M|
|McCann||5 years, $75M||5 years, $80M||5 years, $80M||5/78M||15.7M|
|Jimenez||4 years, $60M||4 years, $65M||4 years, $68M||4/64M||16M|
|Cruz||1 year, $14.1M||4 years, $60M||4 years, $64M||3/45M||15M|
|Granderson||3 years, $45M||5 years, $70M||4 years, $60M||4/59M||14.7M|
|Napoli||3 years, $39M||3 years, $40M||3 years, $39M||3/39M||13M|
|Morales||3 years, $36M||1 year, $14.1M||3 years, $39M||2/26M||13M|
|Drew||3 years, $37M||2 years, $25M||3 years, $38M||3/33M||11M|
|Arroyo||3 years, $36M||3 years, $30M||3 years, $35M||3/34M||11.2M|
|Vargas||3 years, $32M||2 years, $20M||3 years, $30M||3/31M||10.2M|
|Loney||2 years, $14M||2 years, $15M||2 years, $20M||2/16M||8.1M|
|Byrd||2 years, $17M||2 years, $15M||2 years, $18M||2/17M||8.3M|
|Peralta||2 years, $21M||2 years, $16M||2 years, $18M||2/18M||9.2M|
|Hart||1 year, $6M||1 year, $8M||2 years, $16M||1/7M||7.3M|
|Johnson||1 year, $11M||1 year, $10M||1 year, $11M||1/11M||10.7M|
|Halladay||1 year, $5M||1 year, $8M||1 year, $8M||1/7M||7M|
|Hawkins||1 year, $5M||1 year, $4M||1 year, $5M||1/5M||4.7M|
Just a couple of explanations. I rounded the year and total value to the nearest million while the AAV is to the nearest 10th so that is the reason for some discrepancies. Also, players predicted to accept a qualifying offer might be a little skewed in their average years.
While this isn't a science and not really a prediction, I think it gives us a decent idea of what a player's market is. At least enough for us to make some guesses or thoughts on what the Mets should do.
First of all, looking at Ellsbury and Choo, one would reasonably think the Mets are out. Even if they decide to spend this off-season that would make up for most of the off-season budget and be quite foolish. So uh... maybe they do.
I still like McCann and think it would be great out of the box thinking but as some mentioned in that post, he most likely isn't ready to move to 1B for most of his year.
I have already posted on Ulbado as well. I really like the idea of signing him even at that price. He is still young and durable. While he struggled for a couple of years, he has ace potential and at that price he would allow one of our current starters to be traded for a hitter.
Cruz at 15M per year seems like a disaster to me, especially at 3 years. Some are saying he may accept the qualifying offer just to try and rebuild his value after suspension.
Granderson was one of the guys that they couldn't seem to come to an agreement on. There's a big difference in 3/45 and 5/70. I would do the 3/45 but over that and to me it's a bad idea of Jason Bay potential.
Napoli at 3/39 would be a great move if the Mets weren't stubborn enough to think that 1B is fine. Signing Napoli and casting off Ike would bring that total down a little as well.
Morales is also skewed by the qualifying offer. at 3/39 why not sign Napoli? At 2/26, decent stop gap gamble.
Drew, guys I am sorry, is not worth 11M per year for 3 years. Perhaps that's why the Mets are even speaking to Furcal.
Arroyo has been discussed at length here. MLBTR predicts a fit with the Mets. I like him but worry about his age with a 3 year deal. Could it be similar to the problem the Braves had with Derek Lowe? That being said, 3/34 is a far cry from 4/60+
Vargas, I don't know what to think of. Since leaving the Mets he has went 45-50 with an ERA slightly over 4.00 in 134 starts. I can't see paying him 3/31.
Loney, see above. I am not sure the Mets consider 1B a need.
Byrd, seems certainly ready to cash in on his first successful year in a long time. That being said, he's well liked and at 2/17 you wouldn't be getting stuck long-term. I would rather have him be an additional OF signing than the main guy.
Peralta I am actually surprised. I expected much more than the 2/18 predicted, especially with no qualifying offer. If the Mets can get him for that with a 3rd year option, it would be a great move.
Hart, if he is only going to get 1/7M, I honestly can't see him leaving the Brewers. I still like him as a fit for the Mets to play some LF and 1B.
Johnson, 1 year at over 10M is way too much for a guy who seems to never be healthy.
Halladay, let him rehab somewhere else. I can't see him even being ready to start the season. He closed the year throwing Charlie Hough speeds.
Hawkins, thanks for your contributions. Bye-Bye now.
So in summary, if I were the Mets and were limited to this list through FA I would sign 3 of the following. That would be a range of about 28-38M.
SP: Ulbado (16M) or Arroyo (11M).
SS: Peralta (9M)
1B: Morales (13M) or Napoli (13M)
OF: Byrd (8M) or Hart (7M)